The Cyclical Electoral Impacts of Programmatic Policies: Evidence from Education Reforms in Tanzania
A large literature documents the electoral benefits of clientelistic and programmatic policies in low-income states.
Abstract
A large literature documents the electoral benefits of clientelistic and programmatic policies in low-income states. We extend this literature by showing the cyclical electoral responses to a large programmatic intervention to expand access to secondary education in Tanzania over multiple electoral periods. Using a difference-indifference approach, we find that the incumbent party鈥檚 vote share increased by 2 percentage points in the election following the policy鈥檚 announcement as a campaign promise (2005), but decreased by -1.4 percentage points in the election following implementation (2010). We find no discernible electoral impact of the policy in 2015, two electoral cycles later. We attribute the electoral penalty in 2010 to how the secondary school expansion policy was implemented. Our findings shed light on the temporally-contingent electoral impacts of programmatic policies, and highlight the need for more research on how policy implementation structures public opinion and vote choice in low-income states.
This research is part of the 鈥楻esearch on Improving Systems of Education鈥� programme
Citation
Habyarimana, J., Opalo, K. and Schipper, Y. 2020. The Cyclical Electoral Impacts of Programmatic Policies: Evidence from Education Reforms in Tanzania. RISE Working Paper Series. 20/051. https://doi.org/10.35489/BSGRISEWP_ 2020/051.
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