Poverty Dynamics and Programme Graduation from Social Protection: A Transitional Model for Mexico鈥檚 Oportunidades Programme
Abstract
Social protection programmes have emerged as one of the most important anti-poverty policy strategies in developing countries. Their effects on poverty and well-being have been widely studied. Yet, there is limited knowledge on how a transfer programme should respond to the dynamics of poverty. This paper contributes to the existing literature on social protection by providing an analysis of the implications of poverty dynamics for the graduation of beneficiaries of Mexico鈥檚 Oportunidades programme. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study that provides a framework for a generic graduation condition, to the extent that it can be applied to any other transfer programme with means tests or proxy-means tests. By estimating a Markovian transition model that accounts for unobserved heterogeneity, state dependence, and attrition, and using three rounds of the longitudinal Mexican Family Life Survey, we find that Oportunidades could 鈥榞raduate鈥� only 28.9 and 26.7 per cent of beneficiary households in urban and rural areas, respectively. Our results also show that the 鈥榬ecertification鈥� or eligibility assessment of Oportunidades鈥攚hich takes place every three years鈥攃ould be optimized by conducting it every 3.5 and 4.1 years in urban and rural areas, respectively.
Citation
Ni帽o-Zaraz煤a, M.; Villa, J. Poverty Dynamics and Programme Graduation from Social Protection: A Transitional Model for Mexico’s Oportunidades Programme. UNU-WIDER, Helsinki, Finland (2014) 22 pp. ISBN 978-92-9230-830-8 [WIDER Working Paper No. 2014/109]