188体育

Summary of the local place

Watford, a town in Hertfordshire, England, is located 15 miles northwest of central London. It falls under the jurisdiction of Watford Borough Council (WBC) and has a population of 102,500. The town鈥檚 working-age population (ages 16-64) is higher than the national average (67% vs. 63%), but Watford has experienced slow population growth and a decline in its working-age population between 2015 and 2020 (Watford Borough Council UKSPF Investment Plan, 2022). This trend is projected to continue, with the working-age population expected to decline by 3% by 2043, while national forecasts predict a 4% increase over the same period (ibid.).

Watford faces various economic challenges, including employment decline and skills gaps (reported by local businesses), in addition to the impact of Brexit, COVID-19 and rising utility costs, which continue to affect supply chains and trading costs, particularly for Watford鈥檚 key sectors such as construction and wholesale (Watford Borough Council, 2022^{[footnote 1]}). As a net exporter of skills, Watford boasts a highly educated population, exceeding national levels of qualification, with 45% of residents educated to Level 4+ compared to 41% across England (ibid.). Watford is also characterised by a relatively young and ethnically diverse population and historically high levels of entrepreneurship, with 12 businesses started up per 1,000 working-age people compared to 10 in England (Watford Borough Council, 2022^{[footnote 2]}) 鈥� but also a higher than average business death rate (Watford Economic Development Team, 2024). Strong sectors in Watford include retail and construction, creative (especially the film industry), professional and business services, and digital industries (ibid.). With UKSPF, Watford aims to build on its strengths and aims to increase its attractiveness as place to visit and to live.

Watford has received 拢1 million core United Kingdom Shared Prosperity Fund (UKSPF) funding. Funding has been allocated across the three intervention themes, Supporting Local Businesses (拢523,000), People and Skills (拢250,000), and Communities and Place (拢227,000).

Unit of analysis

The UKSPF interventions in Watford focus on supporting individuals to upskill and future-proof their skills, on businesses to increase their markets and address their current and future skills needs, and on enhancing the attractiveness of the town centre amenities (especially St. Mary鈥檚 Churchyard).

The evaluation will use a bottom-up approach to assess the impact on beneficiaries (individuals and businesses). A top-down approach was deemed unsuitable due to the small-scale and localised nature of the interventions. The evaluation will cover all interventions across the three themes, including those delivered locally in collaboration with Hertfordshire Futures. The study will cover Watford in its entirety but, where appropriate, will focus on the impact observed within small geographical areas that have specifically benefited from an intervention (e.g., the town centre in proximity to St. Mary鈥檚 Churchyard or the selected areas where CCTV was installed).

Methodological approach

We will adopt a mixed-methods approach that combines primary research, secondary data analysis, and quasi-experimental design (QED) approaches underpinned by a contribution analysis framework.

Process evaluation

The evaluation framework for Watford aims to provide a robust evidence base. We will triangulate data from WBC鈥檚 extensive ongoing monitoring exercises, secondary data sources, and primary research from bespoke surveys. Moreover, the evaluation will involve a document review of relevant WBC strategies and plans to understand the fund鈥檚 design, objectives, and implementation. UKSPF stakeholder interviews with WBC staff and UKSPF stakeholders (such as Watford鈥檚 economy steering group, which also has UKSPF oversight), intervention delivery partners, and business and resident beneficiaries will gather insights into the effectiveness of programme delivery.

Impact evaluation

The impact evaluation will assess the extent to which the interconnected goals address the above-described challenges regarding Watford as a place to visit and live, a place where businesses continue to thrive, and increased employment and skills. The evaluation will utilise a combination of primary research methods, secondary data analysis, and quasi-experimental approaches to determine the extent to which these interventions have achieved their intended outcomes.

To assess the impact of interventions on Community and Place, the evaluation will use a mixed-methods approach, which includes a quasi-experimental design (QED) approach. Data will be gathered on crime statistics, and resident perceptions through surveys and secondary sources, such as the Crime Survey for England and Wales. For supporting local businesses, the evaluation will combine beneficiary surveys with a QED approach. Surveys will gather data on business growth, market expansion, and sustainability improvements, while the QED approach will use firm-level data to compare beneficiaries to non-beneficiaries, employing Propensity Score Matching to enhance the robustness of the comparison. The impact of People and Skills interventions will be assessed through surveys and interviews with beneficiaries, focusing on skill acquisition, employment outcomes, and overall well-being. The evaluation will also include detailed case studies, which will inform a qualitative comparative analysis to illustrate specific impacts and draw on testimonials from beneficiaries.

Economic evaluation

The economic evaluation of Watford鈥檚 UKSPF delivery will follow the National Audit Office鈥檚 4Es framework: economy, efficiency, effectiveness, and equity.

For economy, the evaluation will assess whether inputs were purchased efficiently, mainly through interviews with programme management staff, and determine if additional in-kind or financial support was leveraged. Efficiency will be measured by assessing how inputs are converted into outputs, using benchmarking against similar programmes and cost-per-outcome analyses, such as the cost per business supported or additional jobs created. Effectiveness focuses on how well outputs are translated into outcomes and impacts, using quasi-experimental approaches and contribution analysis to identify if UKSPF interventions directly led to positive results. Beneficiary surveys will also help measure effectiveness. Lastly, equity will assess how well the interventions benefited vulnerable groups, using monitoring data and interviews with delivery providers and beneficiaries to evaluate if support reached those most in need.

Data to support the evaluation

Primary data collection

Primary data collection for the Watford UKSPF evaluation will involve both surveys and interviews. Surveys will be conducted with beneficiaries who have received support from UKSPF-funded interventions. These surveys will be online and will target different beneficiary groups, including businesses, entrepreneurs, and individuals who have received employment and skills development support. The surveys will be designed to gather information on the outcomes and impacts of the interventions, as well as beneficiaries鈥� experiences with the support they received. They will include a combination of Likert scale questions and open-ended questions to gather both quantitative and qualitative feedback. We also plan to adapt and use the Community Life Survey to capture community-level perceptions and outcomes, particularly regarding the improvement of St. Mary鈥檚 Churchyard and the impact of CCTV and safety infrastructure on residents鈥� perception of safety.

Interviews will be conducted with various stakeholders to gather qualitative insights into the implementation and impact of UKSPF-funded interventions. These interviews will involve WBC staff, delivery partners, and beneficiaries. The interviews will be semi-structured and will focus on gathering in-depth information about the effectiveness of the interventions, challenges faced during implementation, and the overall impact on beneficiaries.

Secondary data

Secondary data analysis will play a crucial role in the Watford UKSPF evaluation, providing context and comparisons. The evaluation will utilise the Annual Population Survey to analyse employment trends, the Inter-Departmental Business Register for business demographics, and the Crime in England and Wales Survey for crime rates. Additionally, the Business Structure Database and Crunchbase will be used for the QED approach.