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Introduction to the review

The Forestry Commission (FC) is the non-ministerial Government department responsible for advising on and implementing forestry policy The Commission administers grants for expanding and managing forests and regulates tree felling. It also provides advice to Ministers, undertakes and commissions research, sets standards for good forestry practice and protects Britain鈥檚 forests from pests and diseases. Through its agency, Forestry England, it manages the nation鈥檚 forests which amount to approximately 253,000 ha of which 212,000 hectares is woodland, equivalent to 16% of the country鈥檚 woodland cover.

The Forestry Commission is not a statutory undertaker but was invited to prepare a voluntary assessment of the risks that climate change presented to its activities and functions under the terms of the Climate Change Act (2008), which was published in 2012. This report reviews progress on actions set out in the published in 2017 and presents new actions that have arisen following this review.

Working across the Defra-group

Forestry Commission continues to work closely with the Department for the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) and its 鈥榓rms length bodies鈥� on adaptation-related issues through:

• supporting the development of the second and third National Adaptation Programmes (NAPs), including through the NAP Biodiversity and Ecosystems NAP Working Group, and providing input to NAP reporting and responses to Climate Change Committee (CCC) progress reports
• contributing to Natural England鈥檚 (NE) and
• engaging, alongside Defra and NE, with the Forestry Climate Change Partnership, with FC now providing secretariat support
• supporting Defra/Environment Agency (EA) flood resilience and water quality (thermal regime of freshwater habitats) objectives through targeting Countryside Stewardship and England Woodland Creation Offer woodland creation grants using EA-derived spatial data
• developing and publishing, with EA, guidance on
• partnering NE, EA, Kew Science and the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS) in the Shared Outcomes Fund project 鈥楴ature-based Solutions at Landscape Scale鈥�
• implementing the actions set out in the

However, there are tensions balancing the needs for nature recovery in native woods with safeguarding the resilience of our wider woodland resource and the multiple goods and services it provides, including some requiring that productivity is maintained.

Understanding Climate Risk

Our understanding of the science of climate change and how it will affect forestry in England has continued to develop since ARP2. The following developments will help inform the management and creation of woodland that is adapted to climate change:

• the decision support tool for tree species selection has been revised by: (a) extending support for decision-making to 62 tree species; (b) now including National Vegetation Classification (NVC) suitability maps for all woodland types (W1-W18); (c) amending the Soil Nutrient Regime (SNR) map to amend the treatment of calcareous brown earth soils
• a tool for Forest Development Types (FDT) has been developed to help practitioners to use FDTs in diversifying their woodlands to enhance resilience to climate change and other threats
• in 2020 FR launched a which gives land managers an accessible method to visualise the projected future climate, by suggesting similar 鈥榓nalogue areas鈥� in the current climate. The tool may also be used to support the sourcing of appropriate, more southerly provenances, for tree planting and restocking
• FR published a report on , supported by a , setting out the evidence supporting when the planting of more southerly provenances of native tree species is likely to confer enhanced resilience

Review of key risks

The priority risks identified in ARP2 have been reviewed and all are considered still to be relevant to FC鈥檚 three main areas of activity: (a) Impact on woodland and forest management in the nation鈥檚 forests (and wider woodland resource); (b) Impact on Forest Services鈥� ability to facilitate adaptation in private sector woodlands; (c) Impact on business and corporate activities. A commentary is provided on how the priority risks identified in ARP2 affect these three principal activities.

Identification of key risks

The following key risks were identified in the :

• pest and disease outbreaks: damage to trees and woodlands is likely to increase from pests and pathogens and from windstorms and droughts. Pest and pathogen damage is likely to increase because of more suitable conditions for their spread, including more environmental stresses that will make trees more susceptible, and because of new introductions. Effective monitoring, control and risk-reduction measures are essential
• lack of species diversity: the limited diversity of tree species planted during the expansion of UK forests in the past 60 to 80 years is an area for concern. Measures to diversify the species grown should reduce these risks and increase woodland functional resilience. However, the rate at which this can be achieved is very low and is particularly problematic in broadleaved woodlands
• wildfire: risk of wildfire damage will increase in southern and eastern Britain, particularly in south-east England, because of higher temperatures, drier conditions and the mosaic of fire-prone land covers, high population density and critical infrastructure. Measures to reduce wildfire risk and damage through open habitat management and contingency planning will be of key importance

In 2021 the for the UK鈥檚 third Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA3) was published. The Climate Change Act (2008) requires that the Climate Change Committee provides advice on the CCRA to the UK Government six months before the Government鈥檚 UK CCRA is laid in Parliament, with the third CCRA due in early 2022.

This assessment identified the following risks relevant to forestry, that should be the government鈥檚 priority for the next five years:

• risks to the viability and diversity of terrestrial and freshwater habitats and species from multiple hazards
• risks to natural carbon stores and sequestration from multiple hazards leading to increased emissions
• risks to crops, livestock and commercial trees from multiple hazards

Review of second round report Outline Adaptation Plan

Progress on actions outlined in the ARP2 鈥極utline Action Plan鈥� is set out below:

• organisational structure and governance: FC published a in 2019, setting out broad programmes of action. The Incident Management Team鈥檚 (IMT) ability to respond to serious events, including wildfire, windstorm and pest and disease outbreaks is now well embedded into the management structure of FC
• recent corporate actions by Forestry England to support adaptation include: (a) the establishment of a Forest Resilience Steering Group to provide organisational oversight and strategic direction; (b) the creation of a new role in the National Operations team (Natural Capital and Resilience Programme Manager) to lead on and drive forward Forestry England鈥檚 national approach; (c) a formal 鈥楢pproach Statement鈥� for forest resilience has been agreed alongside a strategic Risk Register which outlines threats to, and consequences for, the nation鈥檚 forests, and mitigating actions that need to be taken at both local and national scales; (d) a new forest resilience strategy is being developed to bring together and develop these existing documents; (e) Forestry England鈥檚 鈥楪rowing the Future: 2021-26鈥� plan includes actions for a sustainable approach to managing the nation鈥檚 forests and addressing climate change. Forestry England has also committed to reach by 2030
• filling gaps in evidence and addressing uncertainty: There was a strong focus on Climate Change in the seven research programmes that were developed from the 2014 Science and Innovation Strategy (SIS) for Forestry in Great Britain, with 3 devoted to different aspects of resilience. The was published in October 2020 and provides a framework for forestry-related scientific research and three of the work programmes will support adaptation
• outreach and Guidance: Forest Services鈥� outreach work continues, including the publication of 鈥楳anaging England鈥檚 woodlands in a climate change emergency鈥�, United Kingdom Forestry Standard (UKFS) training on Climate Change and support for the . The support of the Forestry Climate Change Partnership (previously known as and the Forestry and Climate Change Working Group) continues and in 2021 Forest Services extended this to include a secretariat function
• embedding adaptation in forestry regulations and grants: No specific changes to forestry regulations have been instigated to address climate change adaptation, but resilience and adaptation principles were considered during the further development of the Countryside Stewardship woodland grants, including the requirement to assess both current and future species suitability when selecting planting stock. There have been some changes to the mapping layers showing sensitivities to woodland creation which impacts on the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) process. The England Woodland Creation Offer (EWCO) has been launched during this period and represents an improved offer for woodland creation, with climate resilience recognised through the scoring framework. Furthermore, additional payments are available for delivering specific public goods relevant to adaptation, including flood resilience and the provision of riparian shade. We have also administered the Woods into Management Forestry Innovation Funds to bring woods into management, particularly when affected by plant health issues
• adaptation indicator development: A number of Key Performance Indicators (KPI) have been identified as relevant to resilience and climate change adaptation, including: (a) Proportion of England鈥檚 woodland area in management; (b) Number of tree pests and diseases established in England in the past 10 years; (c) Number of high priority forest pests in the UK Plant Health Risk Register; (d) Measure of woodland resilience to climate change based on the size and spatial configuration of woodland patches within the landscape. A number of other indicators have been developed since ARP2, including a using information from the National Forest Inventory

New actions arising from the review

The new adaptation programme 2022-2026 incorporates ongoing actions from the ARP2 programme, three new high level actions arising from this review and a suite of actions set out in the published in May 2021, which FC (including Forestry England and Forest Research) are either leading on, or contributing to. The key work streams and actions are set out below.

Development of a Woodland Resilience Implementation Plan (WRIP)

Including a Review of the Keepers Of Time (KOT) policy and the definition of long established woodlands and with links to a national deer management strategy and an update of the grey squirrel action plan. Other actions that will fall under the umbrella of the WRIP programme are:

• agreeing a definition for new native woodland to support the planting of woodlands likely to be resilient to climate change
• agreeing a list of naturalised and 鈥榓dvancing native species鈥� with Natural England and the wider Defra Group
• consider defining a new category of Recent Native Woodland, in which naturalised, advancing and exotic species can be introduced to enhance resilience, working within the definition of new native woodland

Enhancing forest biosecurity and addressing interactions with climate change by contributing to

• contributing to the ongoing review of the UK Forestry Standard and strengthening adaptation requirements
• FR publishing a UK Forestry Standard (UKFS) practice guide on adapting forest and woodland management for the changing climate
• updating woodland management and creation plan templates to better reflect adaptation requirements
• working with Defra to embed the guidance given in 鈥榤anaging England鈥檚 woodlands in a climate emergency鈥� and wider adaptation guidance in Environmental Land Management scheme design
• working with Defra to consider climate change adaptation in revisions to Felling Licence Regulations
• working with FR and Defra to develop an approach for forestry grants and regulations that supports species diversification and climate adaptation using lesser used or novel species while minimising the risk of non-native species becoming invasive or introducing new pests and diseases

Enhancing science, evidence and knowledge sharing

• contributing to the Centre for Forest Protection through FR collaborating with Kew and Defra
• leading the UK鈥檚 membership of the European Forest Genetic Resources Programme (EUFORGEN) to promote the conservation and sustainable use of forest genetic resources in Europe
• Forest Research launching a Resilience Implementation Framework, and upgrading its climate change communication offer, including adaptation guidance. FR is also making continual improvements to the ESC decision support system employing UKCP18 climate projections to replace UKCP09 projections and providing revisions to species models
• ensuring that climate change impacts and adaptation remain at the heart of the Science and Innovation Strategy for Forestry in Britain (SIS), supporting the development and communication of evidence-based practical guidance
• sector engagement on climate change will also be enhanced through a new digital woodland creation campaign, to be launched in 2022
• providing secretariat support and direction for the Forestry Climate Change Partnership to engage the sector and promote adaptation
• working with Defra on a digital forest resilience communications campaign
• delivering nationally accredited training on wildfire resilience to help promote good practice and create a framework for further wildfire resilience. Creating a Wildfire Risk Map to enhance resilience to wildfire

Forestry England鈥檚 Forest Resilience Strategy

This includes specific and measurable actions and targets to demonstrate leadership and best practice in the nation鈥檚 forests. This will be complemented by a forest resilience indicator to monitor the status and condition of the nation鈥檚 forests.

Resilient woodland creation

Woodland creation also offers opportunities for adaptation through (a) expanding the size and therefore resilience of the woodland resource; (b) linking and providing stepping-stones between our ancient and semi-natural woodland to help wildlife move adaptively; and (c) providing the opportunity to design and plant new woodlands with proactive adaptation at their heart.

The 拢640 million Nature for Climate Fund was announced in 2020 of which the intention is to spend at least 拢500 million on woodland creation. This funding has been enhanced with an additional 拢124 million announced in the Net Zero Strategy. FC is playing an important role in advice/promotion and the regulation of woodland creation alongside delivery through administering woodland creation grant schemes: England Woodland Creation Offer, Urban Tree Challenge Fund, Local Authority Treescapes Fund, Woodland Creation Planning Grant and Forestry England鈥檚 Woodland Partnership.

Evaluation of barriers and interdependencies

A number of barriers to adaptation have been identified, in part through the British Woodlands Resilience Survey 2015, and highlighted again in the British Woodlands Survey (BWS) 2020 and can be summarised as:

• lack of woodland management 鈥� concerns over vertebrate pests highlights the impact that deer and squirrels have on limiting positive management
• lack of clarity on adaptation measures 鈥� the range of awareness and action reflects the current lack of clarity on best practice, and points further to the importance in updating the UK Forestry Standard as a priority
• lack of knowledge sharing practice 鈥� most respondents did not collaborate other than to share knowledge and information, with wide divergence in activity
• lack of diversity in new tree planting

Although the barriers remain the same as those reported in ARP2, the confidence to deal with these barriers is increasing. The 2020 survey showed a greater awareness of environmental change than in 2015.

There is still a need for the better provision and explanation of guidance to the private sector to continue to address the barriers that have been identified, alongside a clearer articulation of FC鈥檚 approach to adaptation providing granularity for different woodland types and management objectives. The divergence of the wider forestry sector in addressing adaptation has become apparent over the past five years, with resistance to proactive adaptation and assisted migration from some where nature conservation is the principal objective, even when applied solely to production forestry.

Monitoring and evaluation

Climate change adaptation has been embedded across the organisation as business as usual, rather than as a bespoke activity. Where adaptation is treated as a specific activity, evaluation mechanisms are outlined below:

• Forestry England has built on its 2011 Climate Change Action Plan in a number of ways, including developing a strategic Risk Register for threats to the nation鈥檚 forests, establishment of both a Forest Resilience Steering Group and Network Group and creation of an organisational Approach Statement
• sector resilience outreach activity: The effectiveness of FC鈥檚 guidance and outreach programme will continue to be assessed against a baseline set by the 2015 British Woodlands鈥� Resilience Survey and then carried through the 2020 British Woodlands Survey (BWS). The timing of the next BWS is unknown
• woodland creation: The monitoring and evaluation programme for the Nature for Climate Fund (NCF) will look across the new woodlands created through all the NCF delivery mechanisms
• woodland condition: The National Forest Inventory鈥檚 (NFI鈥檚) Woodland Condition Indicator, published in 2021, provides a baseline to report changing woodland condition against, alongside specific components of the indicator that will continue to be monitored through NFI field survey

Benefits and opportunities

Implementation of adaptation measures has had synergies with three other programmes of work:

• species diversification in response to recent plant health concerns has been strengthened by initiatives to increase species diversity as an adaptation measure, both in the nation鈥檚 forests and in private woodlands
• opportunities for woodland creation and in-forest measures in existing woodlands, originally identified in the ARP1 report as an adaptation measure, continue to be as relevant today. This has put FC in a good position to facilitate long-term solutions to enhance flood resilience
• successful adaptation is crucial to maintaining woodland carbon stocks and sinks as the forestry sector鈥檚 important contribution to meeting future carbon budgets and achieving net zero, as set out in the

Current Government and wider public support for tree planting, together with recent wall-to-wall coverage of climate change issues through the UK hosting the 26th UNFCCC Conference of the Parties in Glasgow, provides an unrivalled opportunity to take forward implementation of adaptation measures in the forestry sector. The key opportunities to embed the implementation of adaptation measures are:

• tree planting programmes, including those supported by the Nature for Climate Fund
• domestic rural policy development, particularly the new Environmental Land Management schemes
• implementation of the 90 actions set out in the England Trees Action Plan
• debate over 鈥榥ature-based solutions鈥� and, at a practical level, FC鈥檚 contribution to the Nature-based Solutions at Landscape Scale project
• the third National Adaptation Programme
• the scale of the Nation鈥檚 Forests to provide an exemplar of resilience, in combination with Forestry England鈥檚 experience and Forest Research鈥檚 expertise

Key challenges

The challenges that the programme set out in this report needs to address are:

• the uncertainty associated with implementing adaptive actions in advance of the full effects of climate change being realised
• clear communication that different approaches to adaptation are appropriate for different management objectives
• drawing the forestry sector together so that it speaks with one voice on the need to adapt, putting different management objectives aside
• ensuring that sufficient, appropriate, planting stock is available to support the ambitious planting programmes
• balancing the nature conservation needs of protecting what we have with the need to ensure that our ancient and semi-natural woodlands can with-stand the future climate